By Bibhudatta Pradhan / NEW DELHI
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lost its decade-long political dominance in Delhi after a crushing defeat in the fiercely contested assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in the capital after 26 years, marking a historic shift in Delhi’s political landscape.
AAP’s disastrous performance was underscored by the defeat of several senior leaders, including its chief, Arvind Kejriwal, and former deputy chief minister, Manish Sisodia.
Here’s a breakdown of why AAP’s once-formidable stronghold in Delhi has weakened:
Declining Popularity and Anti-incumbency
AAP faced strong anti-incumbency and mounting corruption allegations, significantly hurting its electoral prospects. The arrest of Kejriwal in a high-profile money laundering case and subsequent resignation as chief minister further damaged the party’s reputation. The Delhi Liquor Policy scandal became a major talking point, severely denting AAP’s credibility and tarnishing its once-pristine image of clean governance.
Voters who once saw AAP as a fresh alternative became disillusioned due to governance failures, political controversies, and unfulfilled promises.
Kejriwal’s narrative of “politics of work vs. politics of abuse” failed to resonate with the electorate. Instead, voters rallied behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan of ‘Parivartan’ (Change) and the BJP’s aggressive campaign call: “Aapda (AAP) nahi sahenge, badal kar rahenge” (Won’t tolerate the disaster (AAP), will bring change).
Governance Perception and BJP Aggression
The BJP launched an aggressive campaign against AAP, portraying it as a party plagued by corruption and inefficiency. It effectively highlighted key civic issues, including severe air pollution, the deteriorating state of the Yamuna River, water scarcity, the supply of contaminated water, frequent waterlogging during rains, damaged roads, and an inefficient public transport system.
Kejriwal appeared defensive, implicitly admitting that some of AAP’s key promises remained unfulfilled, particularly his pledge to clean the Yamuna River. This perceived failure, combined with AAP’s inability to mount a strong counteroffensive against BJP’s aggressive campaign, resulted in a significant voter shift away from the party.
Even without projecting a chief ministerial candidate, the BJP capitalized on AAP’s weaknesses, securing a decisive electoral advantage.
Freebies Failure and Modi’s “Guarantee’’
AAP highlighted its flagship schemes, including revamped government schools, Mohalla Clinics, free electricity, and free bus rides for women. It also promised a monthly honorarium for women, free healthcare for the elderly, and insurance for auto drivers.
The BJP countered AAP’s freebies by announcing a range of welfare subsidies targeting various voter groups. It made significant inroads with welfare promises aimed at slum dwellers and underprivileged sections of society. While the BJP—including Prime Minister Modi himself—had earlier criticized welfare schemes as “revadis” (freebies), it strategically reassured voters that none of AAP’s existing welfare programs would be discontinued if it were to come to power.
As the competition over freebies intensified, voters placed greater trust in Modi’s “guarantee,” believing in the credibility of the Prime Minister over AAP.
Middle-Class Shift and BJP’s Outreach
AAP appears to have lost a key segment of its support base—the middle class, which once formed the backbone of its electoral success. Corruption allegations, governance concerns, and unresolved civic issues pushed middle-class voters—comprising about 45% of Delhi’s population—away from the party. Kejriwal attempted to win back their support during the campaign, but his efforts proved too little, too late.
Meanwhile, the BJP actively targeted this voter segment through focused outreach programs, including meetings with Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs). Additionally, it strengthened its appeal by offering a major income tax rebate in the budget, further cementing its support among middle-class voters.
Weakened by Congress and Overpowered by BJP
Despite being allies in the last Lok Sabha elections, the AAP and Congress contested this election separately, engaging in a bitter war of words. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi echoed the BJP’s attack on Kejriwal, accusing him of building a lavish “Sheeshmahal” (glass palace) bungalow while failing to deliver on his promises.
Fighting for political survival, Congress failed to win a single seat for the third consecutive Delhi Assembly election but managed a marginal increase in its vote share. Some opposition leaders have since expressed regret, suggesting that AAP and Congress should have contested together to prevent BJP’s victory.
AAP secured 43.5% of the votes, Congress 6.3%, and BJP 45.9%. While it’s hard to predict what a joint Congress-AAP fight would have achieved, one thing is clear—Congress’s presence hurt AAP far more than it did the BJP, significantly weakening AAP’s prospects in Delhi.
(Bibhudatta Pradhan is a senior journalist based in New Delhi.)