Indian Workers Most at Risk as JPMorgan Flags Impact of Trump’s H-1B Hike

Last Updated on September 24, 2025 12:53 pm by BIZNAMA NEWS

AMN / BIZ DESK

The Trump administration’s proposal to impose a $100,000 application fee on H-1B visas has triggered alarm among economists, businesses, and state authorities, with concerns that the move could significantly disrupt America’s skilled immigration pipeline.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli, the dramatic hike could reduce immigrant work authorisations by as many as 5,500 each month. While this number may seem small in the context of the overall US labour market, the economists stressed that technology firms and Indian professionals—who dominate H-1B usage—stand to face the greatest impact.

Data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) show that computer-related roles accounted for nearly two-thirds of H-1B approvals in FY24, with about 71% of these petitions filed for Indian nationals. Of the 141,000 H-1B petitions approved for new employment last year, around 65,000 were processed abroad. These overseas cases, JPMorgan warned, are the most vulnerable to collapse under the new fee structure.

If all of them were to stop, it would reduce work authorisation for immigrants by up to 5,500 per month, unless immigrants are able to use other visa categories to get employment,” the economists wrote in their note, cited by Bloomberg.

Loujaina Abdelwahed, senior economist at Revelio Labs, went further, calling the fee hike “effectively equivalent to dismantling the H-1B system,” potentially eliminating up to 140,000 new jobs annually at US companies that depend on global talent.

The policy shift also comes amid a slowing US labour market. The economy has added an average of just 29,000 payrolls per month over the past three months, a trend that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently described as a “marked slowing” in worker supply and demand, partly due to weaker immigration inflows.

Meanwhile, California Attorney General Rob Bonta criticised the move, saying it adds “uncertainty and unpredictability” for businesses in a state heavily reliant on skilled immigrant workers. He confirmed that California is assessing whether the fee violates federal law.

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